For the first time since the World Surf League (WSL) introduced the Final 5 format in 2021, there is no dominant contender in the men’s world title race. In previous years, the champion had always entered the final event with a lead of more than 10,000 points — a strong buffer that virtually guaranteed victory. Gabriel Medina, Filipe Toledo (twice), and John John Florence each claimed the title under those conditions. But 2025 tells a different story.
With the WSL set to scrap the Final 5 format and return to a cumulative points system in 2026, this final edition is shaping up to be the most unpredictable yet.
Veteran surfer Jordy Smith, now 37, leads the Championship Tour (CT) rankings. He’s joined by rising contenders Yago Dora and Barron Mamiya, who are both in the mix to make their first Final 5 appearances — though Mamiya’s recent injury forced him to pull out of the event at Lower Trestles. The competition is wide open, with surfers like Kanoa Igarashi, Jack Robinson, Griffin Colapinto, Ethan Ewing, and Leonardo Fioravanti all in contention. Past champions Italo Ferreira and Filipe Toledo also remain within reach of another title.
The absence of 2023 champion Florence and two-time winner Medina has left the door wide open. As a result, this year could finally produce a first-time world champion — a moment the Final 5 system was originally designed to create.
“It’s been a super fun, interesting year,” Igarashi told The Inertia after narrowly edging out Crosby Colapinto in a Round of 16 heat at Lower Trestles. “The level is higher than ever. Everyone is strong, and we’re all pushing each other to the limit.
I’m ranked in the top five now, which is exactly where I need to be heading into the final stretch.”
Experience could prove critical in the coming months — especially with Fiji’s Cloudbreak on the horizon. After being dropped from the CT schedule from 2018 to 2023, Fiji is back and expected to play a major role in determining this year’s champion. The waves there are more powerful and unpredictable than those at Lower Trestles, adding another layer of challenge.
Smith, a CT veteran with 17 years on tour, has competed at Cloudbreak seven times but has never advanced past the quarterfinals. Toledo, Ferreira, and Igarashi each have at least three CT appearances in Fiji, but none have cracked the semifinals either. That experience may help, but it hasn’t proven decisive in the past.
Meanwhile, Colapinto and Robinson — both still relatively new to Fiji — posted strong results at the venue in 2024, with Colapinto taking the win and Robinson finishing third. Their performance shows that a lack of long-term experience doesn’t necessarily equate to lower chances.
“I haven’t thought too much about the finals in Fiji yet,” Robinson said after advancing to the quarterfinals at Lower Trestles. “I’m just trying to stay in the moment. Everyone on tour is really good, so you have to be at your best all the time.”
Still, Robinson feels confident in his ability at Cloudbreak. “I believe I can win there. But sometimes, it’s just not your time,” he added.
Yago Dora, currently ranked third, is determined to make the Final 5 for the first time and believes this could be his breakout year.
“I really like my chances at the world title this year,” Dora said. “I’ve been ready for a couple years now. I’ve just been waiting for the right moment to break through. Cloudbreak is my favorite stop. I think I could really win there — and if the title is decided there, that’s where I want to be.”
Just three events remain in the season — Brazil, Jeffreys Bay (J-Bay), and Tahiti — before the five finalists are determined.
For many surfers, this stretch represents a make-or-break opportunity. With Medina and possibly Florence returning next year, and the tour moving back to a cumulative points system with bonus points at Pipeline, 2026 is expected to be a far more grueling title race.
For now, 2025 offers a rare window of opportunity. And in a year where anything can happen, the race for the world title is truly wide open.